The Elephant Trap and Other Stories

Maybe it was because it was Tony Blair issuing the warning that led to so many UK progressives refusing to listen and falling into the very ‘elephant trap’ he had alerted them to.

So let’s rewind the clock a little to a few weeks ago when Boris Johnson was twisting in the wind and goading — almost pleading — with the Opposition to give him an election. Tony Blair warned them not to give him what he desperately wanted — a Brexit election. Let him stew in his own juices and have the election after a second referendum.

However, for various reasons Johnson was given what he wanted. I can absolutely understand why the SNP did so — more on that later — but the Lib Dems’ and Labour’s decision to support an early election was based on a mixture of vanity and a misplaced belief in the Second Coming. The results show that Blair was right about the ‘elephant trap’ and even the Corbynites are accepting that their message wasn’t heard above the Brexit din.

For the British Labour Party the road ahead will be difficult — especially as Scotland is now gone for them politically (as if that was in any doubt really). They’ll have to find a way forward within England and Wales and this will have to include working with other forces and accepting real electoral reform as the price of that.

As for the the other stories. We now know Brexit will be happening and that will inevitably set in train the break up of the UK — after last night it’s now about when and how not if.

In relation to Scotland, I’d expect the Tories to refuse an Indy Ref 2 and that will be the SNP’s ticket to ride in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021 where the Nationalists will clean up. The centre won’t be able to hold and sooner or later Scotland will become independent.

The future of Northern Ireland is now also looming. Last night’s results demonstrated again that the North clearly wants to remain in the EU — but we knew that. Being forced to leave with a border down the Irish Sea will likely increase the sense of alienation from Britain and this will be happening at a time when pro-union sentiment is already under pressure. Political unionism is now a minority force getting just over 42% of the vote and 8 of the 18 seats.

This is a real challenge for us in the South. There needs to be a slow and considered process of engagement about what an all-island future might look like. Any border poll should happen at the end of such a process and when there is a broad cross-community consensus on the way forward.

The last other story is about what all this means for current Irish politics. Now that the way forward on Brexit — in terms of the Withdrawal Agreement — is clear and given the precarious situation in the Dáil for the Government, I’d expect an election here in February or March at the latest so get your new canvassing shoes for Christmas or in the January sales.

Finally, I normally pick a piece of music to go with my blogs and this piece really speaks to me today — London Calling, which is 40 years old this month.